As German election approach, critics expect that its outcome will complete the transformation of a nation long wedded to austerity into a big spender.
Germany’s election takes places on 26 September after which Angela Merkel will stand down after 16 years.
The election could yield a “Jamaica” coalition of the CDU/CSU, Greens, and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP).
Or Europe’s largest economy could get a “traffic light” coalition, led by Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s SPD, with the left-leaning Greens and the FDP as junior partners.
The terms reflect the symbolic colours of the parties – black for CDU/CSU, yellow for FDP, green for the Greens and red for SPD.
A coalition including the Greens and the SPD may narrow the spread between German borrowing costs and those of weaker euro zone states, given these parties’ support for further European integration.
The FDP and the CDU meanwhile oppose a euro zone fiscal union.
Wasmund of DWS said however that none of the likely coalitions would bring about radical change.
“Particularly, the commitment towards the European Union will stay as it is,” he added.
Thus, the election is due on September 26, where Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down after 16 years of administration.
No party would enjoy an effortless lead as Merkel left behind a collapsed political situation.
Moreover, Laschect’s ratings declined sharply after people saw him laughing in his visit to flooded West Germany.
Laschest’s actions allowed the SDP to lead a tripartite alliance with the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP).
However, FDP leader, Christian Lindner, said the scenario is less likely to happen.
“A high share of postal ballots should benefit parties like the Greens, representing affluent, well-educated voters,” said Carsten Nickel.
Postal voting requires bureaucratic knowledge and social relations capital.
This presents a major obstacle for poor and less knowledgeable parties.
As concerns about a fourth COvid wave arise, pollsters expect over a third of the voters to cast their ballots by mail.
In the federal elections of 2017, 28.6% of the votes were postal ballots.
Both parties attempt to mobilize supporters for postal voting before attracting floating voters on Election Day.
“We will experience a two-part election campaign,” said Matthias Jung of the pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.