Brussels, Europe Brief News – Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has entered its fourteenth week. It has massively unsettled European security and seems to have larger implications for the EU itself.
On 24 February, Russia started its military assault on Ukraine from the north, south, and east, which put International peace and security at the gravest risk.
However, the Western countries and USA aided Ukraine with military assistance to offer stiff resistance to Russian Attacks. The Military assistance has at least forced Russia to postpone its goals of overthrowing the government in Kyiv and taking full control of the region.
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Russia has changed its strategic plans as they are focusing on connecting Russia to Crimea to gain land in Donbas beyond what Russian-backed separatists controlled as of 24 February.
Even with more limited Objectives, the Russian forces seem to be struggling and facing multiple difficulties in smoothly executing their plans. Furthermore, the Russian government continues to see the Ukrainian government as “Nazis” and sticking to the main aim.
War and Its Challenges on Europe’s Main Players
The Russia-Ukraine War is having its disastrous effects on Europe Main players. They are finding it difficult to deal with Russia on how to put the war to an end.
1-A War Full of Surprises
Russia’s war on Ukraine has confounded early expectations and dealt Moscow a series of setbacks. Most Analysts predicted that Russia’s larger and better-equipped army would easily take full control of Ukrainian territories.
Instead, Russian forces turned out to be ill-prepared and failed to execute their plans to achieve desired results. The use of anti-tank weapons and stinger missiles supplied by the US proved resourceful in shattering Russian early victory.
One pillar of the Western response is material support for the war effort. NATO has respected certain lines, for example, rejecting Ukrainian requests to impose a “no-fly zone” out of a concern that it may escalate the conflict with Russia.
Western Governments are now becoming readier to supply increasingly heavy and sophisticated weaponry that requires more training and logistics. They had previously held back over a fear that it might fall into Russian hands.
The EU has approved releasing 2 billion euros of weaponry, largely to recompense member states for bilateral transfer to Ukraine.
Western states have also provided intelligence, sometimes implying that they are behind some of Russia’s biggest battlefield losses.
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2-Worries of Wider War
While neither Moscow nor NATO wants war with each other, both sides have used rhetoric and signalling that can escalate tensions.
President Putin believes that he sees the Ukraine war as a proxy conflict with the US-led West, which he describes as a puppeteer pulling strings attached to Zelenskyy and his ministers.
Moreover, Russian officials have even indicated that they are fighting NATO in Ukraine. On the other hand, Western leaders believe that they expect the war to end with war crimes tribunals for Russian officials.
From the Standpoint of European Security, there is a logic aiming at weakening Russia and reducing European dependency on its energy and commodities. They are even promising that those responsible for atrocities will be held to account.
The danger of such talks as the war still rages; it could give the Russian government an impression that Western states may want to destroy Russia.
Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and has repeatedly given threats to use it. Putin commented on the first day of invasion that anyone who interfered would face “consequences such as they have never seen in their history.”
That statement of the Russian President has increased the worries of European Nations and hinted that Russia could willingly use nuclear resources if the conflict escalates.
In reality, the odds of nuclear use remain low, but they are still too high to be cavalier about.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine permits using a weapon only in the face of an existential threat to the state.
3-What EU Can Do
EU Policies, together with those of other Western states, should seek to balance the imperatives of supporting Ukraine, minimizing the risks of an escalation into a Direct Russia-NATO war.
Each Kyiv and Moscow continue to believe that gains on the battlefield can force the other to back down and acquiesce to greater concessions.
The EU and its member states can take several steps to keep the danger of escalation down, encourage an end to violence, and prepare for what comes next.
The first relates to the nature of weapons supplies. The continued provision of conventional weapons to Kyiv helps Ukraine secure more palatable terms when it and Moscow are ready for serious peace negotiations.
At the same time, European governments must avoid measures that run too high of a risk of widening the war.
Also Read: Economic Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for Europe
Conclusion
European Union and Western leaders are facing numerous challenges in controlling the conflict to escalate. The huge military supplies to Ukraine create an impression of the Russia-NATO war more than Russia-Ukraine. Moreover, Russia has shown the willingness to use Nuclear resources if things can spice up, which can jeopardise the security of the entire Europe.
