EBN-According to the Argentine publication Infobae, the world’s cocoa crop is predicted to start declining in April of next year. Due to unfavorable weather, Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer of cocoa, is predicted to have a lesser harvest this year, which could hinder recovery from the severe worldwide shortage.
The median estimate of six merchants and analysts nationwide polled by Bloomberg predicts that the second and lesser harvest of the season, which normally starts in April, will total roughly 400,000 tons. Sources with knowledge of government data estimate that this is comparable to roughly 440,000 tons last year.
Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, the Coffee and Cocoa Council, said it was too early to predict this year’s average harvest and declined to comment on last year’s size. The mid-season harvest was impacted by persistent heat and drought since November, as well as dust-filled monsoon winds blowing in from the Sahara Desert. The market is closely monitoring crop prospects after poor harvests in West Africa caused a massive global deficit and sent prices to record highs last year, driving up chocolate prices. Although futures prices have dropped from their December peak, there is still a chance for a more balanced market this season.
Researchers have warned that climate change caused crops to wither for weeks last year in West African countries that support the world’s chocolate supply, affecting the harvest and likely sending prices to record highs. Farmers in the region, which accounts for about 70% of global cocoa production, have suffered from heat, disease, and unusual rainfall in recent years, contributing to the decline in production, according to a report published by the Spanish newspaper La Sexta on its website .
Impact of climate change on cocoa-producing regions
A report published by the Spanish newspaper concluded that climate change“, primarily due to the burning of oil, coal, and methane gas, is causing frequent temperature increases” in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The study, conducted by the independent research group Climate Central, revealed that this trend was particularly noticeable in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the largest cocoa producers .
Using data from 44 cocoa-growing regions in West Africa, the researchers compared current temperatures to a counterfactual of a world without the effects of climate change. The researchers analyzed the likelihood that these regions would experience temperatures above 32 degrees Celsius (89.6 degrees Fahrenheit), which is higher than levels considered ideal for cocoa trees
According to the report, climate change over the past decade has added three additional weeks of temperatures above 32°C in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana during the main growing season between October and March
Last year, which was the hottest year on record globally, researchers found that climate change caused temperatures to rise above 32 degrees Celsius for at least 42 days in two-thirds of the regions studied
“Excessive heat may contribute to reduced crop quantity and quality,” the researchers said, noting that several other factors could also harm cocoa trees and drive up prices, including cochineal infestations, rainfall patterns, smuggling, and illegal mining.
Drought and climate change have caused three-quarters of cocoa-producing land to become drier over the past 30 year
Christian Aid has published separate research on the vulnerability of chocolate and cocoa farmers to climate change and extreme events caused by global warming
Chocolate is 25% more expensive than last year.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics, the price of chocolate has increased by 25% over the past year. The price of this raw material has doubled due to climate change, causing sharp increases. As prices soared, consumers and brands began looking for alternatives to chocolate, such as new recipes that require less cocoa to mitigate the economic damage.
