Democrats hold a slight lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, according to a new poll from The Epoch Times/Big Data.
Asked which U.S. House of Representatives party candidate theyd vote for if the election were held today, 42 percent chose a Democratic candidate while 41 percent chose a Republican candidate.
Much like the presidential race, that lead was built over the first wave, during which the lead was a modestly wider 3 points. Republicans held a 6-point lead during the second wave.
Another 3 percent of respondents chose a candidate from outside the two major parties while 13 percent are undecided.
While nearly three in 10 independents and third-party voters are still undecided, Republicans currently hold a 7-point lead among this group, 37 percent to 28 percent. Democrats and Republicans are losing roughly the same percentage of their base, 7 and 8 percent, respectively.
Several things are important to keep in mind when weighing generic ballot polling results, Stephen Voss, a specialist in elections and voting behavior at the University of Kentucky, told The Epoch Times.
“The generic ballot only tells you so much because most voters, when they make a congressional choice, are shaped by what their particular district is offering,” he said. “In other words, its partly a top down process, rather than bottom up one. A lot of people who would prefer to vote for a Democrat or a Republican end up getting no viable choice from one or the other party.”
Another key aspect: Traditionally, people who vote Republican have turned out at higher rates.
“In as far as thats true, then usually the Democrats need a decent edge in the generic poll before theyre able to translate that into victory. If you saw a generic ballot thats, say, 50-50, youd actually say that favors the Republicans,” Voss said.
Right now, Republicans hold the presidency and majority in the Senate while Democrats control the House.
More GOP senators, 23, are facing reelection than Democrats, 12. Representatives terms are just two years, meaning all face reelection battles in November.
Center-right voters, or moderates that lean slightly in a conservative direction, could ultimately swing control of Congress or the presidency. Those voters moved toward Democrats in 2018, a trend that appears to be continuing for this election, according to Voss.
“The strategically important center-right voters who usually voted Republican, in 2018 voted much more heavily for the Democrats—and so far, they look like theyre going to do it again,” he said.
“Thats another point about the difficulty in jumping from the generic ballot to outcomes. Those voters, sortRead More From Source
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