EBN- Europe is suffering from political disintegration and economic slowdown, and the war on its eastern flank poses a different kind of threat.
Europe faces the new year amid a bleak pile of threats, its electorate angry, its traditional political parties fragmented, its major economies stagnant or slowing, its birthrates in steep decline, and its eastern flank engulfed in a catastrophic war.
Europe’s liberal democracies are under intense pressure, particularly from right-wing populist movements. Seven of the EU’s 27 member states are now governed entirely or partially by extremist parties. More could follow as frustration grows, particularly among voters in their 20s, over governments’ failure to curb immigration, boost jobs and housing, and improve living standards.
“There is a disillusionment and a crisis of confidence in this young generation who think it is not important to live in a democracy” as long as “the government provides public services, the economy is good, and energy prices are low,” Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, acting president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank, told reporters recently.
Germany and France, long the continent’s power to impose its will and set its direction, now look almost ungovernable, with centre-left and centre-right parties discredited. In both countries, symptoms of civil ill-health are multiplying. France got its fourth new prime minister of 2024 a few weeks ago; many believe he may not last as long as his predecessor, given the country’s divided parliament.
In Germany, the fertility rate for 2023 is reported to have fallen below 1.4 children per woman, which the United Nations considers “extremely low.” This is a grim achievement, but less shocking than the falling birth rates in Spain or Italy.
In Case of Crisis or War
The Swedish government, so fearful of Russia that it abandoned two centuries of neutrality to join NATO last year, has sent out a booklet called “In Case of Crisis or War” to help Swedes prepare for the worst. Norway and Finland have issued similar instructions.
“Cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns are being used to undermine and influence us,” warns a booklet sent to every household in the country by the Swedish government. “To resist these threats, we must stand together.”
Elsewhere in the north, the Baltic republics—members of NATO—are increasingly spending a larger share of economic output on defense than the United States.
The eurozone, over-regulated, aging and underemployed, is losing ground to the United States amid a widening gap in economic prospects across the Atlantic.
The Stoxx Europe 600, a broad gauge of British companies, has barely managed a 6% return this year. In the US, the S&P 500 is up about 25%.
This gap reflects the disparity between the booming US economy, which is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, and the sluggish eurozone economy, which is expected to expand by just 0.8%. This moment requires what Europe lacks: strong, visionary leaders.
The danger for Europe is not only that it will be left in the geopolitical dust, facing the United States and China. It is also the threat on its eastern border from the war between Russia and Ukraine.
