SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 01 09 20
Good Chinese PMI data see copper prices hit two year high
Adriatic Metals* (LON:ADT1) – Updated mineral resource for Rupice Silver Deposit in Bosnia & Herzegovina
BlueRock Diamonds* (LON:BRD) – 12.1 carat diamond from Kareevlei diamond mine valued at over US$100,000
Gem Diamonds (LON:GEMD) – 233 carat diamond recovered from Letšeng
Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) – Greenland extends licenses and license obligations by a year
Kodal Minerals* (LON:KOD) – BUY – MoU with Sinohydro to review engineering, development and financing at Bougouni
Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM) – Kouroussa acquisition completion
Highland Gold (LON:HGM) – Annual guidance reiterated pointing to stronger H2/20
Pan African Resources (LON:PAF) – Trading Statement highlights impact of higher gold price
Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) – Oyu Tolgoi update
Savannah Resources* (LON:SAV) – Disposal of Oman copper assets
Strategic Minerals* (LON:SML) – Leigh Creek environmental submission
Base metals prices boosted by positive Chinese manufacturing data on Tuesday morning
Base metals prices rose on this morning, as the latest data out of China showed that PMI figures beat expectations of 53.1 vs 52.8 in July.
Three-month base metals prices on the LME were up by an average of 1.4% this morning, with copper up by 1.5% at $6,774/t (Fastmarkets MB).
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, base metals prices rose except for aluminium, which fell 0.2% (SMM News).
Ferro-vanadium prices jump 6.4% to $24.34-24.94/mtV in Western Europe (Fastmarkets)
Prices for ferro-vanadium are at long last starting to regain lost ground and catch up with the rise in prices in China.
Northvolt – building Li-ion cell capacity in Europe
Northvolt is looking to build a complete European battery ecosystem involving raw materials, components, suppliers and production capacity.
Northvolt claims Europe is closing the gap on battery manufacturing and is catching up with Asian rivals in the manufacturing of car batteries..
The company has now installed its first process equipment into its new site in Sweden.
We recommend investors look at Savannah* and Kodal* for its lithium, Talga* and Beowulf* for graphite and Oxis Energy, a private UK company for high-power Li-S batteries.
Musk's nickel comments highlight importance of environmentally sustainable supply
Elon Musk's call for nickel miners to produce the metal more sustainably has brought supply practices surrounding the metal to the forefront of questions surrounding the EV supply chain, as Musk promised a "giant contract for a long period of time" to responsible miners (FT).
Analysts predict that Indonesia will account for almost all the growth in nickel supplies over the next decade, although mining companies in the region dump millions of tonnes of waste into the sea, turning the areas around Sulawesi red.
Demand for nickel is expected to increase six-fold by 2030, with demand from EVs expected to make up 30% of the market versus a fraction of that now (mining.com).
Musk's comments highlight a worry among EV makers over the reliance on Indonesian nickel, as many see a supply from the country being a PR disaster waiting to happen.
There are 25 planned mine-smelter combinations expected to open by 2022 across Indonesia compared to the 11 open by November last year (Washington Post).
Dow Jones Industrials -0.78% at 28,430
Nikkei 225 -0.01% at 23,138
HK Hang Seng -0.09% at 25,155
Shanghai Composite +0.44% at3,411
Economics
China – Chinese factories increased activity at their fastest pace in nearly a decade in August, according to PMI data.
Production and new orders both increased at stronger rates than in July, while firms reported the first increase in export sales in 2020 to date.
Employment dropped only marginally suggesting that the labour market may be close to stabilisation.
Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 53.1 v 52.8 in July and 52.5 est.
Germany – Unemployment contracted for a second consecutive month as the labour market continued to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic impact.
“As in July, there was no additional corona-related rise in unemployment… nevertheless, the effects of the pandemic on the labour market are still very clearly visible,” the Federal Employment Agency said.
Unemployment Change (000): -9.0 v -18.0 in July and -2.0 est.
Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.4% in July and 6.4% est.
Spain – A resurgence in new coronavirus cases saw manufacturing gauge slipping back into a contraction in August.
“The recovery in the Spanish manufacturing sector paused in August, failing to build on the return to growth seen in July,” Markit wrote.
“The latest PMI data show that any economic recovery int eh sector is predicated on success in suppressing Covid-19, with the recent increases in virus cases in Spain providing the backdrop for Augusts manufacturing setback”.
Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 v 53.5 in July and 53.0 est.
India – Manufacturing picked up in August for the first time since March as the nation started reopening from strict lockdown.
Concerns remain over the sustainability of the rebound with new coronavirus cases running at an almost 80k a day, the highest among other nations.
Separately, the nations GDP is reported to have contracted by more than expected 24%yoy in June quarter.
Currencies
US$1.1973/eur vs 1.1863/eur last week. Yen 105.72/$ vs 106.21/$. SAr 16.797/$ vs 16.926/$. $1.341/gbp vs $1.326/gbp. 0.740/aud vs 0.730/aud. CNY 6.821/$ vs 6.872/$.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,989/oz vs US$1,945/oz last week – Gold rises as US dollar index hits two-year low
Gold prices rose to their highest level in nearly two weeks on Tuesday morning, as the dollar index dropped to multi-year lows on growing sentiment that US interest rates would stay lower for longer under the Fed's new policy framework.
The dollar has accelerated declines following last weeks speech, where the fed announced the introduction of Average Inflation Targeting (FX Street).
The last trading day of the month yesterday saw gold close slightly lower than the previous month, although the 6th of August saw gold futures close at their highest ever trading value at $2,068/oz (Kitco).
Spot gold was up 0.8% earlier this morning at $1,986/oz whilst US gold futures rose 0.8% to $1,994/oz (Reuters).
Gold ETFs 108.9moz vs US$108.8moz last week
Platinum US$952/oz vs US$934/oz last week
Palladium US$2,288/oz vs US$2,189/oz last week
Silver US$28.78/oz vs US$27.35/oz last week
Base metals:
Copper US$ 6,821/t vs US$6,668/t last week
Aluminium US$ 1,816/t vs US$1,784/t last week
Nickel US$ 15,735/t vs US$15,290/t last week
Zinc US$ 2,579/t vs US$2,517/t last week
Lead US$ 2,009/t vs US$2,002/t last week
Tin US$ 18,240/t vs US$17,850/t last week
Energy:
Oil US$45.8/bbl vs US$45.2/bbl last week
Oil prices nudged further today, with Brent futures set to post a fifth straight monthly gain, as global stimulus measures underpin prices even as demand struggles to return to pre-COVID levels in a well-supplied market
Brent futures for November were unchanged at US$45.81/bbl, while WTI is up 1% at US$43.05/bbl
WTI is on track for a fourth monthly rise, reaching US$43.78/bbl on Friday when Hurricane Laura struck
Oil markets largely shrugged off the hurricanes impact on Friday as energy companies continued efforts to restore operations at US Gulf Coast offshore platforms and refineries shut before the storm
A weak US dollar has supported oil prices even though fuel demand has struggled to recover amid the coronavirus pandemic and supplies remain excessive, although crude may face hurdles going forward
Chinas crude imports in September are set to fall for the first time in five months as record volumes of crude are stored in and outside of the worlds largest importer, data from Refinitiv and Vortexa showed
Reflecting concerns about rising supplies and sluggish global economic recovery, hedge funds and money managers cut bullish estimates on US crude to the lowest level in nearly four months
Natural Gas US$2.646/mmbtu vs US$2.710/mmbtu last week
Following the expected surge in gas prices last week, prices have now settled lower on expectations of lower demand due to cooler weather and lower liquefied natural gas feed in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura passing through the US Gulf Coast.
Henry Hub is currently down 5.87% percent also due to profit-taking after traders had increased their net buying position in the commodity ahead of Lauras landfall last week
Ahead of Hurricane Lauras landfall, oil producers in the Gulf had shut in more than 84% of oil production and more than half of gas production, and the market was bracing for disruptions
The weather in the US mid-west is expected to be cooler than normal which should increase heating demand
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$116.8/t vs US$117.7/t – Chinese iron ore imports fell -6.5% last week
Iron ore arrivals at major Chinese ports fell 950,000t last week compared to the week prior to 13.58mt- although this was 2.23mt higher than the same period last year.
Shipments leaving Australian ports fell 1.81mt to 15.98mt compared to the week prior, whilst shipments leaving Brazil were estimated to rise 1.23mt to 8.27mt (SMM News).
China is set to record another strong month of iron ore import with standings currently at 92.9mt with one day left to assess cargo arrivals- in line with the average monthly imports for this year of 94.23mt (Reuters).
Iron ore imports to the world's largest consumer rose 11.8% in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period a year earlier (Refinitiv).
The price of iron ore has surged nearly 34% year-to-date, primarily fuelled by strong demand from China's efforts to revive its pandemic-hit economy.
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$557.1/t vs US$546.6/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$57.1/t vs US$56.0/t
Coking coal futures Dalian Exchange US$126.0/t vs US$118.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,200/t vs US$33,200/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$49,993/t vs US$49,840/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$4,985/t vs US$4,948/t
Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$30.3/kg vs US$30.3/kg
Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.2/kg vs US$5.2/kg
Tungsten APT European US$210-215mtu vs US$205-210/mtu
Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$430/t vs US$430/t
Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,275/t vs US$2,275/t
Company News
Adriatic Metals* (LON:ADT1) 125p, Mkt cap £254m – Updated mineral resource for Rupice Silver Deposit in Bosnia & Herzegovina
The company has announced the completion of drilling at the Rupice Silver Deposit in the Vares Silver Project, which has resulted in the resource increasing 32% in tonnes compared to the maiden 2019 Rupice MRE using a 50g/t cut-off.
Most of the high-grade mineralisation at the Rupice Deposit is hosted within the brecciated dolomitic unit, which is offset and cut by northwest striking, westerly dipping syn-post mineral faulting.
For the Mineral Resource estimate, a total of 167 diamond drill holes (46 historical drill holes and 121 drill holes from the Company's previous drilling programmes) for 38,135m define the current limits of the known mineralisation. The deposit was drilled and sampled using diamond drill holes at a nominal 20m by 20m spacing.
Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource estimates for the deposit now stands at: 2.0Mt @ 149g/t Ag, 1.4g/t Au, 4.1% Zn, 2.6% Pb, 0.5% Cu, 25% BaSO4 (reported above a cut-off grade of 50g/t AgEq) containing 58Moz Ag, 527koz Au, 489kt Zn & 312kt Pb.
The updated mineral resource estimate will provide the foundation to the PFS, which will incorporate ongoing metallurgical test work results and mining studies designed to improve the planned development configuration of the project compared with that outlined in the November 2019 Scoping Study.
*An SP Angel mining analyst has visited Adriatic Metals operations in Bosnia
BlueRock Diamonds* (LON:BRD) – 50p, Mkt cap £4.4m – 12.1 carat diamond from Kareevlei diamond mine valued at over US$100,000
BlueRock Diamonds report that a 12.1 carat diamond recovered from its Kareevlei mine near Kimberley, S Africa during July, has been valued at US$104,000 equivalent to almost US$8,600/carat.
Executive Chairman, Mike Houston reported that this is the fifth diamond from the mine which has been valued at over US$100,000.
Mr Houston also said that “Now that we are operating in pure Kimberlite again following the development of KV Main we expect an increasing incidence of higher value diamonds.”
The company has previously indicated that it is expanding production rates from 700,000tpa to a rate of around 1mtpa by the end of 2020 providing increased volumes of kimberlite ore and increasing the possibility of recovering further high-value diamonds as mining progresses.
Conclusion: Recovery of a fifth diamond worth over US$100,000 from the Kareevlei mine as production ramps up from pure kimberlite ore in the KV Main pit builds up puts BlueRock in a good position for the recovery of further high-value diamonds.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Bluerock Diamonds.
Gem Diamonds (LON:GEMD) 34.3p, Mkt Cap £42.7 – 233 carat diamond recovered from Letšeng
Gem Diamonds reports the recovery of a 233 carat Type II white diamond from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho.
Todays announcement follows the “recent recovery of a high quality 442 carat Type II diamond, one of the world's largest gem quality diamonds to be recovered this year”, which was announced in August and of a 183 carat diamond announced in February 2020.
Gem Diamonds has previously reported the recovery during H1 2020 of sixteen individual diamonds sold for in excess of US$1m each.
The Letšeng mine has consistently produced large high quality diamonds with a total of 11 stones in excess of 100 carats produced in 2019 and 15 in 2018.
Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) – 8.31, Mkt cap £81m – Greenland extends licenses and license obligations by a year
The government of Greenland have approved the decision to extend mineral licenses by a year and to also extend the obligations relating to mineral licenses by a year.
The decision highlights Greenlands support for the mining industry and its willingness to help companies exploring and developing projects in the region.
While logistics and access has been restricted for exploration programs due to the Coronavirus many companies have continued to work on remote sensing and on the analysis of data from past field programs.
For Bluejay. Work has continued on the Dundas ilmenite project in terms of securing offtake commitments for 70% of its planned 390-490,000tpa of product.
Negotiations continue on further offtake commitments for the remaining 140-190,000tpa of planned scheduled production for the Dundas project.
The offtake commitments should support the expected bank and offtake financing for project construction once the mining license is awarded by the government of Greenland.
Bluejay are also working on the analysis of assay and other data on the Thunderstone exploration program where there is evidence of gold, pGMs and base metals.
Conclusion: The government of Greenland appears fully supportive of exploration and development in Greenland and has gone far further than most other nations in supporting miners and explorers in their work through the coronavirus crisis..
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker. The analyst has visited the Dundas ilmenite project in Greenland. The analyst holds shares in Bluejay Mining. Dundas is well worth the visit as Greenland is awe inspiring
Kodal Minerals* (LON:KOD) – 0.062p, Mkt cap £7m – MoU with Sinohydro to review engineering, development and financing at Bougouni
Kodal Minerals report the signing of an MoU with Sinohydro Corporation Limited a specialist engineering, infrastructure, power developer and construction contractor.
Sinohydro, a subsidiary of PowerChina with $67bn of sales, will work with Kodal to develop the Bougouni Project.
The engineering contractor is working on a number of projects in Mali and remains active in a number of large national infrastructure projects.
Sinohydro is currently active in the Bougouni region and members of its technical team have already looked at the geology, engineering, logistics and corporate aspects of the Bougouni Project following a site visit.
The team have access to the Bougouni feasibility study data.
MoU agreement:
Sinohydro will conduct its own review of the Bougouni development with particular emphasis on providing input into the procurement and civil engineering.
Sinohydro will also assist in sourcing financing for the Project subject to satisfactory review.
The Sinohydro team will work with Suay Chin International Pte Ltd, Kodals largest shareholder and Shandong Ruifu Lithium Industry Co Ltd, which operates a lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production plant in China.
Shandong Ruifu is expected to process the Kodals spodumene in China.
Kodal and Sinohydro will then negotiate an EPC contract for the development of the Bougouni project.
Recommendation: We recommend Kodal as a buy for investors given todays positive news and reduced financing risk subject to Sinohydros review.
Conclusion: This looks like a great deal from a shareholder perspective for Kodal. Not only will Sinohydro pay for its own review but it will work out and present its engineering, logistical and geological evaluation to Kodal. Subject to a positive review, Sinohydro along with Kodal will then work out the financing and EPC contract. Sinohydro are prepared to work with Suay Chin and Riufu Lithium in terms of plant and product specifications which should speed up the engineering and design finalisation.
*SP Angel act as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals
Hummingbird Resources (LON:HUM) 37p, Mkt Cap £132m – Kouroussa acquisition completion
The Company completed the previously announced Kouroussa Gold Project acquisition with ownership now formally having been transferred from Cassidy Gold.
The team is now awaiting the mining license from the Government of Guinea that once awarded will trigger payment of the initial consideration of £10m through the issue of 35.2m Hummingbird shares at a price of 28.4p.
That would represent 9.0% of the enlarged share capital of the Company.
Highland Gold (LON:HGM) 294p, Mkt Cap £1,071m – Annual guidance reiterated pointing to stronger H2/20
Revenue climbed 11%yoy to $195m as stronger realised gold prices more than compensated for lower sales volumes.
The Company sold 121koz of gold and gold equivalent compared (H1/19: 143koz) largely reflecting lower processed grades at MNV (54koz, -10%yoy) and Novo (33koz, -30%yoy).
At Novo, gold equivalent sales were also affected by lower gold conversion ratios as higher gold prices and lower price for other metals resulted in a lower quantity of gold equivalent ounces sold.
Realised gold prices climbed 26.0%yoy with the Company continuing to pursue hedge free strategy.
The rouble weakened against the US$ during the period with the average USDRUB rate up 6.5%yoy.
TCC and AISC climbed to 717$/oz and $966/oz (H1/19: $540/oz and $778/oz) reflecting weaker H1/20 production, higher energy costs and COVID-19 related costs.
COVID-related care and maintenance costs in H1 2020 amounted to US$2.1 million, including wages, materials and supplies for additional health and safety procedures.
EBITDA was up 11%yoy at $96m (H1/19: $87m) with earnings margin maintained at 50%.
FCF (post-interest) totalled $14m (H1/19: $31m) after accounting for $59m in capital costs (H1/19: $31m) largely driven by development capex at Kekura ($26m), Belaya Gora ($9m) and Novo ($11m).
Net profit was $36m (H1/19: $46m).
Net debt (including leases) stood at $280m or 1.30x annual EBITDA (Dec/19: $250m and 1.22x), well within the Boards debt targets.
The Company deferred interim dividends in respect of H1/20 pending the outcome of the Fortiana potential recommended pre-conditional mandatory cash offer.
The Company reiterated FY20 production at 290-300koz for FY20 with capital projects at Novo and Belaya Gora on track for completion this year.
Conclusion: The Company benefited from stronger gold prices in H1/20 (+26%yoy) compensating for weaker gold production and higher unit costs. The team reiterated FY20 production guidance for 290-300koz implying stronger H2/20 with both Novo and Belaya Gora expansion projects remaining on target for completion later this year.
Pan African Resources (LON:PAF) 24.7, Mkt cap £472m – Trading Statement highlights impact of higher gold price
Pan African Resources has issued a positive trading statement indicating that, partially as a result of exchange rate movements which have seen “year-on-year change in the average and closing exchange rates of 10.4% and 23.1%, respeRead More – Source
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