It is widely anticipated that Turkey’s parliament will grant approval to Sweden’s NATO membership request on Tuesday, thereby overcoming the primary obstacle to the Western military alliance’s expansion.
The Turkish general assembly, where President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling coalition commands a majority, is scheduled to cast a vote on Sweden’s request approximately 20 months after Stockholm formally sought NATO membership in response to Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine.
Upon parliamentary approval of the decision, Erdogan is likely to sign it into law within a few days, making Hungary the sole member state yet to endorse Sweden’s accession.
Hungary has expressed the view that, judging by Sweden’s actions, NATO membership is not a top priority for the country. Although Hungary had committed not to be the last ally to ratify Sweden’s membership, its parliament is in recess until approximately mid-February.
Turkey and Hungary have more favorable relations with Russia compared to other members of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Despite their opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has voiced criticism of Western sanctions on Moscow. Furthermore, Russia has issued warnings of potential responses if NATO enhances military infrastructure in the two Nordic states.
The postponement in obtaining Turkey’s approval has caused frustration among certain Western allies of Ankara, allowing Turkey to negotiate and secure certain concessions.
DELAY OVER RATIFICATION
In 2022, when Sweden and Finland expressed their desire to join NATO, Turkey raised objections, surprising some alliance members. Turkey cited concerns about the two countries’ support for groups that Ankara considers as terrorists.
While Turkey approved Finland’s membership in April of the previous year, it, along with Hungary, has delayed Sweden’s approval. Ankara had called on Stockholm to take a stronger stance against local members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group classified as a terrorist organization by both the European Union and the United States.”
In reaction to this, Stockholm enacted a fresh anti-terrorism legislation criminalizing affiliation with terrorist organizations. Additionally, Sweden, Finland, Canada, and the Netherlands implemented measures to ease restrictions on arms exports to Turkey.
Erdogan, who submitted Sweden’s application to parliament in October, has tied the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership to the U.S. endorsement of F-16 fighter jets sales to Turkey.
Although the White House supports the sale, there is no definite timeline for approval by the U.S. Congress, and Turkey faces some opposition from Congress due to concerns about delaying NATO enlargement and its human rights record.
The Turkish general assembly is scheduled to convene at 1200 GMT, with Sweden expected to be one of the first topics discussed among many.
Last month, the parliament’s foreign affairs commission approved the application, with support from Erdogan’s AK Party, nationalist allies MHP, and the main opposition CHP. However, opposition from nationalist and Islamist parties remains.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli stated on Tuesday that his party would persist in supporting Sweden’s bid during the general assembly vote.
