EBN- The year 2024 will see a significant increase in the prevalence of many infectious diseases , due in part to climate change , declining vaccination rates, and the emergence of new strains of pathogens.
London-based disease forecasting company Airfinity has revealed in a preliminary analysis the importance of confronting the significant rise in preventable diseases affected by climate change, with the need for coordinated global efforts to combat them.
By late December, dengue fever had reached record numbers, with cases exceeding 13 million worldwide, more than double the number recorded last year.
In Central and South America, infections have nearly tripled, while the global death toll has reached nearly 10,000 this year.
Pertussis cases have also increased by about tenfold compared to 2023, along with other diseases such as monkeypox, Oroposh fever and polio.
Unprecedented spread of diseases
This year also saw an unprecedented outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza, with 61 cases reported in the United States by late December, and in Rwanda, the first outbreak of Marburg virus, which causes severe hemorrhagic fever and can be fatal in some cases.
The analysis, based on data from 128 sources in 206 countries, found that extreme heat and changing climate patterns contributed to the spread of diseases, some of which are transmitted by viruses, bacteria and parasites carried by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks.
Climate change impact and vaccinations
As temperatures rise, vectors can survive and reach new areas.
This year is set to be the hottest on record, with global average temperatures reaching 1.62 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in November, according to the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service. In addition, low vaccination rates following the coronavirus pandemic and the emergence of new strains of the disease have contributed to their wider spread.
Monkeypox usually considered less contagious and milder than smallpox, has killed hundreds of people this year after a more virulent strain emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, prompting the World Health Organization to declare it a global public health emergency for a second time. The decline in vaccination rates worldwide in the wake of the pandemic has also led to a resurgence of measles, which has risen 380% in the United States and 147% in Europe.
Impact of conflicts on health
Irfinity also revealed that population displacement and disruption of vaccination campaigns due to military conflicts have caused a resurgence of polio in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the only two countries where the disease remains endemic and mainly affects children.
The resurgence of preventable diseases and the impact of climate change on global health highlight the need for a stronger commitment to preventive measures and innovation to combat diseases,” said Kristan Perova, an analyst at Irfinity.
It also called for enhanced global data sharing and monitoring of trends to ensure a coordinated public health response.
